Don't underestimate Turkey's power, it is the second largest military in NATO and they actually have US nukes stationed at incirlik airbase.
It will not come "to far", remember last year's kerfuffle with Germany and the Netherlands (the whole "nazi remniscants" quote). Since last week everything is suddenly fine and dandy again..... Erdogan just uses this rethoric to pose for his own constituents.
Don't underestimate Turkey's power
Don't over estimate it.
Turkey can not stand against a tier one military.
An American or Russian force could wreck them, rapidly.
remember last year's kerfuffle..
It is established history that rattling a saber toward Europe gets positive results. It's standard component of diplomacy.
It is unlikely to be as effective on Trump. It could, but I'm hoping not.
Erdogan just uses this rethoric to pose
Agreed, but I'm hoping he pushes too much and some combination of political maneuvering pushes him places here didn't intend.
Egypt didn't actually want to start the 6-day war in 67. They just wanted to posture, but Jordan called the bluff.
I'd like to see something like that happen.
Turkey does not have an "Arab army", it has a westernised NATO structured military which often practises with other NATO forces. In contrary to most of their Arab cousins Turks are reasonably educated, very nationalistic, very patriotic and Erdogan is not a "fearmongering total dictator" like the heads of most Arab countries. (he's trying to get there though) The main question would be how hard his "Gulenist purge" has struck the military officers.
Turkey can not stand against a tier one military. An American or Russian force could wreck them, rapidly.
I disagree, Turkey has a shitload of high tech anti-air, a very modern inventory, 600k active personell, a shitload of reserves due to conscripts and the Turkish terrain alone is pretty fucked up to fight on. Attrition and losses to any invading force would be very high. And you forgot to account for the nukes at Incirlik.
Putin will most likely use any friction between Turkey and US to improve relations and interests in Turkey anyway, it would only be following his trend of increasing ties for over the last decade.
Binkov on Turkey vs Russia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6f-FdlyqA8s - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hkTLEOC27-I
It is established history that rattling a saber toward Europe gets positive results. It's standard component of diplomacy. It is unlikely to be as effective on Trump. It could, but I'm hoping not.
Erdogan's only positive result was internal (the yes referendum), nothing postive came from it from EU. I don't think he views Trump/US any different for his internal politics and pro-Kebab speak (and why should he). This is not the first time Erdogan threathened the US in the last year anyway, for example Donny called him "a great guy" right after his visit last time (the one when his security staff started beating protestors in DC).
I'm starting to get excited.
I don't think Erdogan will be stupid enough to push too far, but maybe.
I'd love to see Turkey get some American style Liberation™. The Kurds deserve their own country, they are one of the few reasonable peoples in that region.
Maybe it can even bring the US and Russia closer together if they bond while dismantling Turkey.