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15 comments

[–] jobes 0 points (+0|-0) Edited

This is a long one to do on mobile. Just to start

Fox/CNN/NPR/NYT/WaPo etc

Even if I had cable I wouldn't watch them, listen to them or read them.

Right, even before getting sanctioned to Iran/NK levels, they struggled fielding a modern army/air force/navy

Russia never intended on having a powerful airforce. They knew that they could not compete with NATO, hence why they spent their time on anti-air defense. The S-500 is quite awesome. Hell, Turkey got sanctioned for buying some S-400's since nothing else was better at the time.

Also for army, Russia tends to just throw bodies at the enemy and it seems to work. They have 3 million military now, one third active two third reserve. That's a lot of bodies.

Yeah, hypersonic seems mostly like vanity projects

No current tech can shoot down a descending hypersonic missile. It would take minutes to take out the entire US Pacific Fleet.

Some estimates i've heard is that about 1/4 of NATO equipment sent to neighbor country ends up in Russia either by sale, gift or siezure.

Yeah that's anon data, but take for example what US troops leave behind when retreating bases and fortified areas. 82 billion in Afganistan. Why wouldn't Ukraine leave the heavy stuff behind when running from certain death? They know they'll get more.

[–] CDanger 0 points (+0|-0)

No current tech can shoot down a descending hypersonic missile. It would take minutes to take out the entire US Pacific Fleet.

Same is true for MIRVed ICBMs in quantities > 5 or so already. Toss in MIRVs, SLBM, and decoys and they are still practically invulnerable. Ok, they wouldn't use ICBMs for the carrier groups, but they would certainly take out Pearl Harbor etc that way and they have tons of ant-shipping missiles (that they happen to be burning through right now for land strikes on Ukraine since they're depleting all other guided munitoins, lol) that would take out the carriers at sea or force them so far offshore as to be irrelevant in the conflict. And it's inevitable that's how a major conflict between Russian and NATO would end up anyway, so whether a carrier group gets taken out by a 200kt nuke, forced from the theater, or destroyed at mach 8 from a hypersonic conventional missile becomes largely irrelevant.

Yeah that's anon data, but take for example what US troops leave behind when retreating bases and fortified areas. 82 billion in Afganistan. Why wouldn't Ukraine leave the heavy stuff behind when running from certain death?

Come on Jobes, do better than that. Don't just trust anonymous posts and telegram chatter and shitty quality photos of a 20 captured Javelin's stacked on top of hundreds of 7.62x39 spam cans. The only place for that kind of intelligence is when curated and combined like from Oryx. Unfortunately Oryx isn't updating anymore, but by last count Russia has lost and abandoned an absolute shit ton of equipment, so this once again looks like a weird projection from Russia in this claim. By my count, Russia is the clear winner of the "running from certain death" and abandoning equipment category. Funny enough, I've seen a lot of intel that Ukraine has actually increased their numbers of MBTs since the start of the conflict due to captures, while Russia's losses are truly massive. Russia really can't continue burning through equipment at this rate, even with their large, rotting inventories in Siberia of non-functioning and obsolete equipment.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

You've also got the analogy wrong if you think Ukraine is America's Afghanistan. Strangely NATO troops are not on the ground occupying a hostile foreign country getting shot at and killed. That's the Russian solders in this scenario. The closer comparison is this will be a repeat of the USSR's Afghanistan by getting bogged down in land they can't occupy and with a steady flow of arms for the insurgents. But really Afghanistan has almost nothing in comparison to the current conflict (objectives, especially geography, people, language, equipment, etc) so it's a dumb comparison anyway.

Kremlin propaganda logic assumes people are dumb and just go "hurr, America is a weak, declining empire that just left behind tons of equipment in Afghanistan 6 months ago. Ukrainian people secretly hate the West and have no motivation for independence and would gladly welcome us. They'll crumble just like Afghanistan did in 3 days and the US will be embarrassed again". So far I think we've conclusively seen if that wold view turned out to be true and based on reality. Time to reevaluate the credibility of that perspective and all other dubious claims made from that side.