5

Debate me, or whatever.

Debate me, or whatever.

17 comments

[–] Butler_crosley 4 points (+4|-0)

Ask the farmers in Georgia about it right now. Estimates are currently at $3 billion in agriculture losses from Hurricane Michael and they are saying that number may go even higher. Pecan harvesting was at 5% harvested when Michael hit and that was from the first drop. Second drop is gone in many areas. Cotton was affected, peanuts were affected, and timber was hit hard. All farmland that just took a hit like the 401ks did in 2008, except this has happened 3 years in a row for South Georgia farmers. And if you're think that the land itself is worth something, it isn't worth that much. Land is cheaper in rural areas compared to suburban or urban land. And it doesn't gain value unless you plant timber, which isn't cheap to do.

[–] CDanger 1 points (+1|-0)

Sounds like a good time to buy GA land; there are probably plenty of sellers desperate to get out now, and this sounds like a period of exceptionally bad luck right now.

[–] Butler_crosley 2 points (+2|-0)

Most of them are too stubborn to quit and they'll get assistance from the government to get them through to next spring and summer.

Indeed, I agree that running a monocrop business is not going to be a winning plan right now. However, I suspect that a small ranch would have the ability to cover property taxes, and over time I'm guessing we're only going to see the value of such land increase drastically. If one is reasonable with their foresight, I think selling off parcels would provide relative security, even if real estate isn't exactly the most liquid asset.

As for timber, its only expensive if you're seeking a 5-10 year turnaround. Native trees are generally pretty cheap and easy to to start as saplings, even if they do take decades to add significant value.

Of course I'm not arguing that a cash retirement strategy should be all together abandoned. Everyone needs money for daily goods. I just think that land provides a security that cash on its own never can.

[–] Butler_crosley 0 points (+0|-0)

Timber isn't cheap to plant unless you can get a grant from the government. It can easily run 6 to 7 figures for the planting once you add in prep work (raking, spraying, and burning) and cost of seedlings. The USDA offers a grant program for some native species where you can get up to 90% of the costs back but it's on a first come basis, has strict deadlines, and you have to put the land in conservation status for at least 10 years. And you still have to pay property taxes on the land and maintain the land with periodic controlled burns. If you want to be making income from it without selling pieces then you can grow pine and setup a pinestraw operation about 5 years after planting.

Source: My family is currently replanting our timber tract and I'm the one who gets to make sure the process is going correctly since I live the closest to it.

[–] kromulent 3 points (+3|-0)

From a financial standpoint, it's just not; most farmland does not grow in value very much. Plus you have the added risk of putting all your eggs into one basket.

From a lifestyle standpoint, maybe, but farmland won't be of much use if you are disabled or sick.

If you have money, you can always buy suitable land. If you have land, you can't easily trade it for a CAT scan.

[–] Boukert 2 points (+2|-0)

the initial investments you need to make to turn a profit on the farmland are way to high to make this worthwhile in general.

Apart from the massive amount of manhours you would need to run a farm you would also need a big monitary investment. If you would start a cropfarm for example you would need: The initial seeds themselves, Tractors and big machinery like ploughs, combines, harvesters, vertilizer, an irrigation system, good storage systems, insurance etc etc. Meanwhile cropyields are uncertain, (especially in first years), profit margines are low and under pressure by big retailers, competition is global and nature can be tricky.

The only chance to get profit would be to go into grapes and then make your own wine, would be my guess. Apart from this farmland probably being more expensive this would ask for even more investment due to the increased complex production process of the end-product (bottled wine).

I'd rather take the money from the 401k and spent that on whatever.

[–] pembo210 1 points (+1|-0)

I like it. As long as you're fairly able bodied, you can generate more than enough food, sell the extra and keep the cycle going.

[–] Boukert 2 points (+2|-0)

i think you severely underestimate modern farming, the investments it takes to start a modernfarm are very high. The profit margins are low and under pressure, the cropyields uncertain, insurance unaffordable etc etc

You become a farmer because your dad was one, not because you want to get rich!

[–] pembo210 1 points (+1|-0)

I'm thinking way smaller scale. Not making money off the crops, but actually growing, eating, and preserving most of them for personal use. Something like 20-40 acres with a dozen pigs, 20 chickens, and maybe a few cows could generate enough food for a family. Chickens are real cheap and mature pretty quick. Rabbits are great too.

Yeah, beyond that, I'm not real sure on ongoing costs like animal feed or electricity to run the wells for water. Adding 40 solar panels would cover the power bill plus get a some money back from the power company for a little extra income.

I don't see it making money, but instead providing a safety net. If the power grid goes down, grocery store shelves never get stocked, your retirement fund fails, you'll have food onsite.

[–] Butler_crosley 2 points (+2|-0)

Even still, you're at the mercy of the Mother Nature with your crops. Plant too early and lose them to a fall heat wave or late frost in the spring. Insects destroying your crop because it rained for a week and a half straight and you couldn't put out anything to stop them. Tree falls and takes out your fences and your livestock escapes. Coyotes attack your herd and kill that year's calves. There are so many variables in farming that make it one of the risker professions to be in. If you're a prepper I sincerely hope you have the skills required for farming because it isn't just drive a tractor around and planting. They have to have carpentry skills, welding skills, be a mechanic, understand chemicals, electrical skills, and plumbing (that's just off the top of my head, there are probably more). Probably be better off being a good hunter and growing a vegetable garden. Oh and you have to be stubborn as a mule.

[–] Boukert 0 points (+0|-0)

That's a far fetched scenario for idealist or "preppers" though and full of risks on a normal scenario (or will you be paying your medical bills in eggs). I'd personally rather use the 401k money and just buy those supplies cheap and easy and enjoy my pension by having the freedom to do whatever I want, where ever I want.

[–] [Deleted] 1 points (+1|-0)

The market seems to eat the normal persons money but its where all the superannuation funds put the money they get.

[–] CDanger 0 points (+0|-0)

Nah, just get away from the "investment advisors" aka fund salesmen. Invest in a simple index fund with low fees and you'll be fine. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

[–] [Deleted] 0 points (+0|-0) Edited
[–] CDanger 0 points (+0|-0)

And? Look at the the 30 year chart. Hell, if you bought in 2007 you would be fine.

When prices fall it is a good time to buy, not when they rise.