5

There's a lot of division as to who and what actually brought North Korea to the table. There's people blindly saying it's Moon who did it, or Trump. Like anything else, it's probably more nuanced than that.

These are the policies and approaches taken by all sides.

Park Geun-hye:

  • She shut down the Kaesong Industrial Complex in 2016 after North Korea launched a rocket. This ended one of the major peaceful inter-Korean projects from the Sunshine era . This had reportedly cutoff $516 million USD to North Korea. The reason for this shutdown was because they accused North Korea of using the funds to pay for their weapons programme.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/12/why-north-korea-benefit-from-seoul-closing-kaesong-industrial-complex-south-korea

  • She was the victim of vicious North Korea propaganda attacks, even after she left the presidency. She was called a "bitch" and even sentenced to death by North Korea. On the other hand, the Norks have been more precarious when dealing with Moon Jae-in and refrained from personal attacks -- even at the midst of military tensions.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-29/north-korea-calls-for-execution-of-ex-south-korea-leader/8661872

https://www.38north.org/2017/08/jdelury082917/

  • Under Park Geun-hye's administration, DMZ loudspeakers were restarted at around the same time the Kaesong Complex was closed. This did nothing but help damage relations even further.

https://thediplomat.com/2016/01/south-korea-to-restart-anti-north-propaganda-broadcasts-in-response-to-nuclear-test/

Moon Jae-in:

  • He ran on being more diplomatic towards North Korea than his predecessor, Park Geun-hye. This was originally seen as in stark contrast to what Donald Trump was doing at the time. That being said, he left the military option open by threatening to "destroy North Korea beyond recovery".

http://www.afr.com/news/politics/world/moon-jaein-wins-south-korean-election-vows-better-ties-with-pyongyang-20170509-gw1372

https://www.rt.com/news/403399-south-korea-north-destruction/

  • Keeping in line with diplomacy, he said in a speech that he didn't wish to collapse North Korea and that it's better to be levelheaded on the issue. This came days after Donald Trump called Kim Jong-un "Rocket Man" and threatened to destroy North Korea.

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2112291/we-do-not-desire-collapse-north-korea-south-korean-president

  • Under Moon Jae-in's presidency, an official came out and said that Kaesong Industrial Complex wasn't actually used to fund North Korea's weapons programme. This is in contradiction to the reason why it shut down. This could be perceived as the South Korean government wanting to be more logical when dealing with the North instead of making assumptions which could be flagrantly wrong.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/07/13/6/0401000000AEN20170713006200315F.html

  • Moon Jae-in has also reportedly expressed action in stopping private groups from launching propaganda over the DMZ. North Korea is very much against propaganda entering their borders, and has responded to balloons flying across the border by shooting them down in the past in order to try stop them from reaching the public. This is South Korea giving up one of their propaganda tools, which could be seen as a minor concession to the North at the time.

http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/805639.html

Xi Jinping:

  • Under Xi Jinping, China has taken a much stricter approach when dealing with North Korea, even snubbing them. A major shift was made when Xi Jinping went to South Korea first, when was unprecedented. He still hasn't visited North Korea. This is significantly different to the previous Chinese administrations who always went to Pyongyang first.

https://thediplomat.com/tag/xi-jinping-visit-to-south-korea/

  • China has been significantly more stricter in enforcing sanctions against North Korea under Xi Jinping's reign. This was the case even before Donald Trump became president. Though they didn't always completely enforce sanctions, they've gotten more strict after 2017 after Xi Jinping met with Donald Trump.

  • A significant change in Chinese attitude towards defectors was seen in 2016, under Xi's tenor. China actually claimed that this defection was legitimate, which is a massive difference from repatriating North Koreans back to their homeland. This seems to be a one-off though, as now there are now high rewards for reporting defectors to authorities to repatriate.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36021981

http://english.dailynk.com/english/read.php?num=15144&cataId=nk01500

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-announces-sanctions-against-north-korea-a6969256.html

  • Because of Xi Jinping, there was a massive fuel cutoff which temporarily raised the prices of petrol and diesel 100% in North Korea. This is where Trump got his "long gas lines" tweet from, in which he was only partially correct in saying.

http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-fuel-prices-surge-after-china-cuts-oil-sales-2017-7?IR=T

https://www.nknews.org/2017/09/long-gas-lines-not-forming-in-north-korean-capital-sources-say/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

  • A major diplomatic thaw was achieved in 2018 when Kim Jong-un was invited to China to meet Xi Jinping. This is the first time they reportedly met. Though the reason for this meetup could be because Xi Jinping incentivised Kim Jong-un to go to China.

http://www.nkeconwatch.com/2018/03/30/china-reportedly-incentivized-kim-jong-un-to-visit/

  • Despite these foreign policy issues, trade with Chinese trade with North Korea did actually increase right up until 2017, when there was a significant drop. This would have left North Korea more isolated than ever as they became more dependent on China for trade. China is by far North Korea's biggest trading partner, so this would have significantly hurt their economy.

https://www.38north.org/2015/10/rfrank102215/

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/chinas-trade-with-north-korea-dropped-sharply-in-2017.html

Donald Trump:'

  • Under Donald Trump's Presidency we've truly seen a bipolar attitude towards North Korea. From personally insulting Rocket Man to saying that he wants to be friends with Kim Jong-un. In this interview from when he was running, there was a mix of attitudes to North Korea. In one sentence he threatened action against the Norks, then in another he wanted diplomacy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKTr4hHIA8M

  • Under Donald Trump, sanctions against North Korea have been ramped up significantly. The largest sanctions against North Korea have been levied against North Korea, and they've reportedly had an effect. But whether or not sanctions are enforced is largely dependent on China.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-24/trump-announces-largest-ever-sanctions-for-north-korea/9480696

https://www.38north.org/2018/02/aabrahamian022818/

  • Chinese and the United States have been generally more cooperative on the issue of North Korea, but this isn't without faults. At times, they've come to crossroads where the USA has had to threaten China to get them to comply.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2101457/where-did-bromance-go-between-xi-jinping-and-donald

Conclusion

Generally, I don't think credit can be attributed to anyone in particular for bringing North Korea to the table. It's been a mix of cooperation on all sides which got the ball rolling. In a way, each side has been dependent on the other to get stuff done.

There's a lot of division as to who and what actually brought North Korea to the table. There's people blindly saying it's Moon who did it, or Trump. Like anything else, it's probably more nuanced than that. These are the policies and approaches taken by all sides. **Park Geun-hye:** - She shut down the Kaesong Industrial Complex in 2016 after North Korea launched a rocket. This ended one of the major peaceful inter-Korean projects from the Sunshine era . This had reportedly cutoff $516 million USD to North Korea. The reason for this shutdown was because they accused North Korea of using the funds to pay for their weapons programme. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/12/why-north-korea-benefit-from-seoul-closing-kaesong-industrial-complex-south-korea - She was the victim of vicious North Korea propaganda attacks, even after she left the presidency. She was called a "bitch" and even sentenced to death by North Korea. On the other hand, the Norks have been more precarious when dealing with Moon Jae-in and refrained from personal attacks -- even at the midst of military tensions. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-29/north-korea-calls-for-execution-of-ex-south-korea-leader/8661872 https://www.38north.org/2017/08/jdelury082917/ - Under Park Geun-hye's administration, DMZ loudspeakers were restarted at around the same time the Kaesong Complex was closed. This did nothing but help damage relations even further. https://thediplomat.com/2016/01/south-korea-to-restart-anti-north-propaganda-broadcasts-in-response-to-nuclear-test/ **Moon Jae-in:** - He ran on being more diplomatic towards North Korea than his predecessor, Park Geun-hye. This was originally seen as in stark contrast to what Donald Trump was doing at the time. That being said, he left the military option open by threatening to "destroy North Korea beyond recovery". http://www.afr.com/news/politics/world/moon-jaein-wins-south-korean-election-vows-better-ties-with-pyongyang-20170509-gw1372 https://www.rt.com/news/403399-south-korea-north-destruction/ - Keeping in line with diplomacy, he said in a speech that he didn't wish to collapse North Korea and that it's better to be levelheaded on the issue. This came days after Donald Trump called Kim Jong-un "Rocket Man" and threatened to destroy North Korea. http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2112291/we-do-not-desire-collapse-north-korea-south-korean-president - Under Moon Jae-in's presidency, an official came out and said that Kaesong Industrial Complex wasn't actually used to fund North Korea's weapons programme. This is in contradiction to the reason why it shut down. This could be perceived as the South Korean government wanting to be more logical when dealing with the North instead of making assumptions which could be flagrantly wrong. http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2017/07/13/6/0401000000AEN20170713006200315F.html - Moon Jae-in has also reportedly expressed action in stopping private groups from launching propaganda over the DMZ. North Korea is very much against propaganda entering their borders, and has responded to balloons flying across the border by shooting them down in the past in order to try stop them from reaching the public. This is South Korea giving up one of their propaganda tools, which could be seen as a minor concession to the North at the time. http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/805639.html **Xi Jinping:** - Under Xi Jinping, China has taken a much stricter approach when dealing with North Korea, even snubbing them. A major shift was made when Xi Jinping went to South Korea first, when was unprecedented. He still hasn't visited North Korea. This is significantly different to the previous Chinese administrations who always went to Pyongyang first. https://thediplomat.com/tag/xi-jinping-visit-to-south-korea/ - China has been significantly more stricter in enforcing sanctions against North Korea under Xi Jinping's reign. This was the case even before Donald Trump became president. Though they didn't always completely enforce sanctions, they've gotten more strict after 2017 after Xi Jinping met with Donald Trump. - A significant change in Chinese attitude towards defectors was seen in 2016, under Xi's tenor. China actually claimed that this defection was legitimate, which is a massive difference from repatriating North Koreans back to their homeland. This seems to be a one-off though, as now there are now high rewards for reporting defectors to authorities to repatriate. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36021981 http://english.dailynk.com/english/read.php?num=15144&cataId=nk01500 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-announces-sanctions-against-north-korea-a6969256.html - Because of Xi Jinping, there was a massive fuel cutoff which temporarily raised the prices of petrol and diesel 100% in North Korea. This is where Trump got his "long gas lines" tweet from, in which he was only partially correct in saying. http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-fuel-prices-surge-after-china-cuts-oil-sales-2017-7?IR=T https://www.nknews.org/2017/09/long-gas-lines-not-forming-in-north-korean-capital-sources-say/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter - A major diplomatic thaw was achieved in 2018 when Kim Jong-un was invited to China to meet Xi Jinping. This is the first time they reportedly met. Though the reason for this meetup could be because Xi Jinping incentivised Kim Jong-un to go to China. http://www.nkeconwatch.com/2018/03/30/china-reportedly-incentivized-kim-jong-un-to-visit/ - Despite these foreign policy issues, trade with Chinese trade with North Korea did actually increase right up until 2017, when there was a significant drop. This would have left North Korea more isolated than ever as they became more dependent on China for trade. China is by far North Korea's biggest trading partner, so this would have significantly hurt their economy. https://www.38north.org/2015/10/rfrank102215/ https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/11/chinas-trade-with-north-korea-dropped-sharply-in-2017.html **Donald Trump:**' - Under Donald Trump's Presidency we've truly seen a bipolar attitude towards North Korea. From personally insulting Rocket Man to saying that he wants to be friends with Kim Jong-un. In this interview from when he was running, there was a mix of attitudes to North Korea. In one sentence he threatened action against the Norks, then in another he wanted diplomacy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKTr4hHIA8M - Under Donald Trump, sanctions against North Korea have been ramped up significantly. The largest sanctions against North Korea have been levied against North Korea, and they've reportedly had an effect. But whether or not sanctions are enforced is largely dependent on China. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-24/trump-announces-largest-ever-sanctions-for-north-korea/9480696 https://www.38north.org/2018/02/aabrahamian022818/ - Chinese and the United States have been generally more cooperative on the issue of North Korea, but this isn't without faults. At times, they've come to crossroads where the USA has had to threaten China to get them to comply. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2101457/where-did-bromance-go-between-xi-jinping-and-donald **Conclusion** Generally, I don't think credit can be attributed to anyone in particular for bringing North Korea to the table. It's been a mix of cooperation on all sides which got the ball rolling. In a way, each side has been dependent on the other to get stuff done.

2 comments

I give 90% of the credit to the mountain.
If the mountain had not collapsed, I don't think any of those efforts would have resulted in anything new.
Kim did not 'give up' rockets or nukes. He lost them, and is now making the best of the situation.

Note, I've done zero research and base this entirely on headlines of articles that I never actually read.

As /u/InnocentBystander points out, my heavy speculation is on that mountain collapsing. Of course I have not done nearly as much researching as you have here. This is quite a nice collection of sourced links you have here.

While I can never place complete fault or credit on one person alone, I do believe Trump was a monumental actor in this decision. Kim has been dealing with weaker images of POTUS for decades. The North was able to garner enough fear from the world in order to be left alone all this time, but suddenly Trump steps in and has an equally irrational temperament. It kind of gave Kim a heads up.

Some others have talked about how Trump brazenly challenging Korea is what caused Kim to fail. He took the bait and started ramping up missle test launches and production so fast that the mountain collapsed. Plus due to the other background things happening like the first few articles you linked talk about, it all culminated in the North not having too many other options besides calling Trump on his final bluff.