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More than coincidence.

posted by Sarcastaway on Whatever

As you may have heard, Alaska received a false alarm for a tsunami today, 7am PST.

During the last several months there have been several other false alarms in Japan and the US. These events are not exactly rare, but generally occur a few times per decade, rather than a few times per year.

These recent incidents include an unspecified EAS alert in Guam, a J-Alert for an earthquake in Japan, an incoming missile EAS alert in Hawaii, a J-Alert for a missile in Japan days after the Hawaii alert, and a NWS alert for a tsunami on the east coast of the US

I'm pretty certain that these events go beyond coincidence. Nearly all of these alerts are respectively attributed to the error of a single employee. Am I to believe that human error has gone up something like ten-fold in the last year? Because I'm not buying it.

As you may have heard, Alaska received a [false alarm](https://www.nbcsandiego.com/weather/stories/False-Tsunami-Warning-Jolts-West-Coast-Alaska-482405051.html) for a tsunami today, 7am PST. During the last several months there have been several other false alarms in Japan and the US. These events are not exactly rare, but generally occur a few times per decade, rather than a few times per year. These recent incidents include [an unspecified EAS alert](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/15/guam-radio-stations-accidental-emergency-alert-north-korea-threat) in Guam, a [J-Alert for an earthquake](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42582113) in Japan, an [incoming missile EAS alert](http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42677604) in Hawaii, a [J-Alert for a missile in Japan](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/world/asia/japan-hawaii-alert.html) days after the Hawaii alert, and a [NWS alert for a tsunami on the east coast of the US](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/06/national-weather-service-says-tsunami-warning-for-the-east-coast-was-just-a-test) I'm pretty certain that these events go beyond coincidence. Nearly all of these alerts are respectively attributed to the error of a single employee. Am I to believe that human error has gone up something like ten-fold in the last year? Because I'm not buying it.

4 comments

[–] xyzzy 3 points (+3|-0)

Am I to believe that human error has gone up something like ten-fold in the last year? Because I'm not buying it.

Also the nuclear bombing warnings have gone up infinitely percents, from 0 to 1. IMO tsunamis warnings are more often because earthquake detection has improved, and there is issued a warning as soon as possible. IDK if that will save lives or numb them down to warnings, but not warning people of a possible tsunami would be really cruel.

[–] Sarcastaway [OP] 0 points (+0|-0)

the nuclear bombing warnings have gone up infinitely percents, from 0 to 1.

While the actual alerts to the public have gone up (thanks, internet), false alarms for nuclear war are not a new occurrence.

Most notably, the soviet false alarm of '83 would have resulted in global nuclear war, if one man had not disobeyed procedures and waited for a detonation on his own soil to confirm the attack was real.

Another particularly funny scare was in '53, when a herd of swans was mistaken for a stealth aircraft flying over Turkey, along with a number of other coincidences indicating a soviet offensive.

IDK if that will save lives or numb them down to warnings

This is an interesting consideration. There's an old paper written on this topic. Though its more about weather than seismic activity, I think it applies.

"Every prediction contains an element of irreducible uncertainty … actions that are based on predictions lead to two kinds of errors. One is when an event that is predicted does not occur, i.e., a false alarm. The second is when an event occurs but is not predicted, i.e., a surprise. There is an inevitable tradeoff between the two kinds of errors; steps taken to reduce one will increase the other."