Close but not quite. And I don't mean that as an insult, just that your math is considering the wrong things.
You only need 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency. 55 votes represents 20.3% of the votes needed to win. So while your numbers are correct, percentage of the total votes is irrelevant because you don't need to get but 50.18% of the state votes to win. This, incidentally, is where you can win the election without the popular vote.
I suspect that if the state does split, it will be more blue the further south you go. Judging from the 2016 results, anyway.
Close but not quite. And I don't mean that as an insult, just that your math is considering the wrong things.
You only need 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency. 55 votes represents 20.3% of the votes needed to win. So while your numbers are correct, percentage of the total votes is irrelevant because you don't need to get but 50.18% of the state votes to win. This, incidentally, is where you can win the election without the popular vote.
I suspect that if the state does split, it will be more blue the further south you go. Judging from the 2016 results, anyway.
Yes but "20% of the way towards half the College" is not the same thing as "20% of the total voting power of the nation"
Yes but "20% of the way towards half the College" is not the same thing as "20% of the total voting power of the nation"
Eh, okay. Fair enough. I stand corrected.
Eh, okay. Fair enough. I stand corrected.
That is disingenuous. 20% of they way towards winning is not the same as 20% of the voting power. California has just over 10% of the country's Electors (out of 538). And considering they have 12% of the US's population that is not an unreasonable number. I do want the state split up, for the slim chance that some pieces won't always go blue.