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4 comments

[–] xyzzy 2 points (+2|-0)

So finally the prices of the Japanese capacitors might come down.

The predictions are pretty flawed though. Future demand is hard to extrapolate from current data with the demand for rare-earths being from the fastly changing electronics industry.

[–] CDanger 2 points (+2|-0)

Humans vastly underestimate uncertainty (both ways) when making future predictions about anything.

[–] jobes [OP] 1 points (+1|-0)

It's almost like we're working with extremely incomplete sets of data that can't be extrapolated from, yet we tend to put compete confidence into those predictions for no reason whatsoever