People said the same thing about the industrial revolution and to an extent is was true.
That is entirely unrelated. Again, the problem is that jobs will be eliminated, not that they change. You're conflating issues that sound similar but aren't.
So far that just isn't true..
Because it hasn't hurt yet, it never will? You even go on to admit that you expect that to change. You're not really going to deny that automation will be capable of most jobs, right? That includes service jobs, and at least some art/entertainment.
Yes! This is exactly the natural order of things I was talking about.
Then I'm glad that the natural order has not been a thing since before I was born. That sounds horrible.
I will do my best to leave my country a prosperous place that is full of opportunity. If you are content to see your children forced by unemployment, to move to a 3rd world.. well your not. You can't be.
..in the 19th and early 20th century..
I'm kind of hoping our future involves progress, not a regress.
If you only have labor to offer the economy you need to go to place where it is in demand.
See, you're still dodging around the only point I am trying to make. None of that works when there no longer is a demand, anywhere, at all.
That time is coming sooner or later. Not everyone wants to, or is able to be an artist or engineer. And I don't feel anyone should have to work full time, when it is not necessary.
The system we use evolved to get maximum usage out of the labour pool, and encourages expansion. We can not sustain that when we run out of new frontiers.
There are many possible solutions. But doing nothing will not result in it working itself out. I think you are greatly mistaken if you think the 'natural course' of economics has ever ended in anything but disaster.
all took off and became multi-trillion dollar industries employing millions directly and indirectly because people had more free time because they weren't working all day on the family farm or toiling in a coal mine.
No, they had disposable income, secure employment, and free time. That is what resulted in the arts and entertainment boom. If people have free time because they don't have a job at all, it results in revolution, not Hollywood.
The more free time we have, the more capitalism creates things for us to do and that will continue to create jobs
That's not how it works. Not at all. Capitalism seeks to get the task done in the best/most efficient way. By any means necessary. It will eliminate all unnecessary positions, not create them.
Demand comes from elsewhere. And that is the heart of it. As long as there is sufficient amount, and variety, of demand, things will work themselves out.
But I see demand running out, if nothing were to change.
Things will change though. It's started already, but it's too soon to see what direction it'll go.
Demand will never run out. It will change. It is always changing. That is the heart of capitalism, meeting the demand. The crux of the matter of automation is how does the government respond to it. Creating an entire subclass of people who contribute nothing or very little to the economy because the robots "took our jobs" seems like the wrong move. This will make nothing but drag on the economy and will actually attract more people looking for a hand out. We already see that with the migrant crisis in Europe. Hand out stuff and people will be lining up to take it instead of working and a lot of those people will have no desire to contribute the nation's society (i.e. more crime, extremism and revolution). There will be lot of new jobs, but they will be different. We already have a problem filling skilled technical jobs now. (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/so-many-good-u-s-jobs-so-few-qualified-workers/) (sorry link function doesn't seem to work on Brave browser. I'm going to put a post in /s/bugs). We need the government to invest in retraining these people instead of just giving up and saying these people are just excess labor who will never work again. I used to be afraid of the automation takeover, but the more you read the actual studies on it and not the scare headlines and the people screaming "this is going to end all work" you will realize that it is something to be embraced. While there will be pain as the new economy takes hold, humanity will be much better off in the long run. Less death, less disease, better jobs, and more time to embrace all that is unique in this human experience.
Demand will never run out. It will change. It is always changing.
I feel you might not be getting what I'm trying to say. Demand in general won't run out. But demand for any skill you have will. Low skilled labour is begining to phase out already (eg.mcdonalds). And then moderate skilled will follow, and then most others. At least in any significant amounts.
You will be made obsolete.
Businesses will become able to eliminate human staff.
Arts and education only go so far. This needs to be accounted for.
That is the heart of capitalism, meeting the demand
Exactly! And when demand runs out, you're boned. Capitalism wasn't designed to cope with that. Adjustments, or some change will be required.
Creating an entire subclass of people who contribute nothing or very little to the economy because the robots "took our jobs" seems like the wrong move..
Agreed. Who suggested that?
There will be lot of new jobs, but they will be different.
There will be new, different jobs, but a few orders of magnitude less in number.
When there is literally nothing that you can do, that my Robo-unit can't do better, cheaper, I'm not going to employ you, or anyone.
We need the government to invest in retraining these people instead of just giving up and saying these people are just excess labor who will never work again.
I never said anything like that?
I never proposed any solutions at all. But there are solutions.
I am just saying shit's gonna be fucked if we don't look ahead and plan for human obsolescence. Because it is going to happen. If you think you will continue to be physically or intellectually superior to computers, you are wrong. You're underestimating where technology is going to take us.
you will realize that it is something to be embraced
You're really not getting where I'm coming from. I don't fear it, I don't want to stop automation, I don't want to protect any jobs.
I am looking forward to it.
In the end, when the dust settles, the new society that emerges will be much better. The question is whether we look ahead and make a smooth transition. Or clutch onto what is, then build the new society on the ruins after the inevitable collapse.
It's gonna be a bumpy ride if we don't plan for it.
People said the same thing about the industrial revolution and to an extent is was true. Wealth gets concentrated in times of economic upheaval and technological advancement. But the answer isn't doing what the communists did and redistribute everything. History has shown that that just makes people poorer. We are seeing that today. Wealth is being concentrated in tech tycoons.
So far that just isn't true. Automation is actually creating more jobs that is costing (for now anyway). And the new jobs pay better and they are less physically demanding. As automation gets better the pace of jobs lost will pick up and maybe start to outpace the new jobs created, but automation will not be an end to all work as we know it.
Yes! This is exactly the natural order of things I was talking about. People go where the opportunities are. When Europe had an oversupply of labor in the 19th and early 20th century, people streamed into the more primitive US and the US was better off for it because it needed that labor (skilled and unskilled). The US economy eventually overtook the European economies. It will be no different in the future. If you only have labor to offer the economy you need to go to place where it is in demand.
That is exactly how capitalism works and history proves it. Before the industrial revolution, art, music, acting, writing, and other "hobbies" were exclusive domains of the ultra-rich and the artists were usually subsidized by the crown. After the industrial revolution and into the 20th century, Hollywood, the music industry, professional sports, the publishing industry all took off and became multi-trillion dollar industries employing millions directly and indirectly because people had more free time because they weren't working all day on the family farm or toiling in a coal mine. They wanted to be entertained and spent vast sums of money on movies, music, art, books, newspapers, magazines, and other new hobbies. That trend continues today with video games and internet content and very soon virtual reality. The more free time we have, the more capitalism creates things for us to do and that will continue to create jobs long after all the taxi drivers, truck drivers, miners, and janitors are robots.