increase desk jobs .. inflated our entertainment industry .. engineering jobs .. programmers .. enormous market in luxury goods .. Built many more buildings and structures
That's my point. All kinds of new areas to exploit. What happens when those are automated? Because they will be. Desk jobs, service, even construction and programming will be mostly handled by automation.
As a whole, we have always struggled with the problem of overproduction. It is soon going to get much worse, and will be unsustainable with our current system.
Seriously, what do you think the average meathead from highschool is going to be doing for a living in 40-50 years, that couldn't be better done through automation?
The idea of everyone being employed full-time is going to become a relic of the past. If we don't accept that and begin a transition, then things are going to get dangerous as jobs dry up and wealth disparity continues to grow.
That's my point. All kinds of new areas to exploit. What happens when those are automated? Because they will be. Desk jobs, service, even construction and programming will be mostly handled by automation.
There will always be a considerable part of jobs that is not automatable, either preferred by humans due to interaction or by necessety/ safety.
If I could wish/hope we would go for the Star Trek idea and explore space.
As a whole, we have always struggled with the problem of overproduction. It is soon going to get much worse, and will be unsustainable with our current system.
Not since the end of WW2 in the US (remember the great depression) and after the 60's or even 70's in EU (rebuilding after the war was no picnic). Overproduction is a relatively new phenomenon for mankind and only really a case in about 20% of the world. I grew up in the 80's and altough we where doing well (it was just after the global oil crisis) it was incomparable to today's western standards.
For the future i see; more products and bigger markets; hence more "human jobs" desk, sales, maintenance, development etc etc
Seriously, what do you think the average meathead from highschool is going to be doing for a living in 40-50 years, that couldn't be better done through automation?
Meathead can currently operate an I-phone so he might not be as dumb as we think and can probably grasp basic engineering when properly taught. We wil always need plumbers, electricians, welders, maintenance and all forms of construction jobs (high demand over here and plenty of meatheads working them), he can work in ever increasing security sector, can start a You-Tube channel for fly fishing, launch a line of duckwhistles via the interwebz, become a proffesional Dataminer for phuks etc etc.
The idea of everyone being employed full-time is going to become a relic of the past. If we don't accept that and begin a transition, then things are going to get dangerous as jobs dry up and wealth disparity continues to grow.
I agree with full time jobs dissappearing "as they are now", but I disagree with your other statement. (mind I'm wearing Dutch goggles)
In Benelux, UK, Ger, Fra and scandinavia (western Europe), you have seen a trend of the following since the 80's (mind you they all have minimal wage, sector unions and socialist political ideas influencing)
Lower workhours per week (most full-time jobs are on 36 hour weekly max contracts)
More part-time jobs (by choice, as there is a general demand for employees) between 20 hrs - 32 hours weekly
Higher work efficiency
Higher pay and more vacation time
Better quality jobs
More Wealth distribution
Higher educational standards
Smarter overall population
More higher educated jobs
More diverse jobs
Highest living standards on the planet
Scandinavia even has very generous paid paternity leave (months, weeks)
In general education standards are pretty high in these countries (not any/ many private schools), it is encouraged to follow higher education by state facilitations, uni's are affordable and accessable for all. By these measures our population has become way smarter overall. We have also funding for re-education to adept to new jobs.
Speaking for the Dutch; Our tech, IT, medical and engineering sectors have exploded since the 70's and currently are amonst the best of the world. Farming and trading used to be our big things. They both still are but with much lower amount of employees. It used to take 600 men to empty a cargo ship and 50 men to harvest your corn. These workers have learned, adapted and impoved to get better jobs.
IMO we are not victims of automation, we are being liberated by it, to do what we want with our lives and live them to full potential.
There will always be a considerable part of jobs that is not automatable, either preferred by humans due to interaction or by necessety/ safety.
No there won't. Hobbies are not jobs. You don't get paid to do something that can be done cheaper through automation.
That's just not how capitalism works.
You might be underestimating the current and future potential of automation. You will be obsolete within your lifetime.
If I could wish/hope we would go for the Star Trek idea and explore space.
That would be one method of keeping a frontier society alive. If we used space exploration to drain the overproduction, it would allow us to continue in the current way. But we can't count on that to happen soon enough.
Not since the end of .. Overproduction is a relatively new phenomenon for mankind..
No, no.. no.
Overproduction has been a 'thing' since feudalism.
It is one of the big questions that philosophers and economists have discussed, for as long as history has been written.
It is a fact that modern (or even primitive by todays standards) people can produce more than required to survive, resulting in an excess.
I'll leave you to explore the topic further on your own since many better witters have already done that.
The reason you don't realize that it is a big issue is because you have reaped the rewards of being an export nation.
Your overproduction came to my country, and others.
Honest question: Are there more Dutch in your country or mine?
I know we have more Irish than Ireland, and the Dutch are more common.
The problem is that there is no new ground until space colonization. And we're not opening up new employment sectors as fast as we're shutting them down.
Meathead can currently operate an I-phone so he might not be as dumb as we think
No, they're exactly as dumb as I think.
The average computer will soon be smarter than the average human.
The number of things that a human can do better is a rapidly shrinking list, and will only continue to shrink. It will never grow.
Even trades are going to dry up. They will likely be the slowest, but it already started long ago. They make up only a fraction of the size they used to be. They become less skilled, and less in number every year as more and more is automated or prefabricated.
Either you greatly overestimate most human ability, or underestimate the coming technology.
..Speaking for the Dutch..
What you're not getting is that all you listed was made possible by being in an ideal position to use up all production.
That is going to change.
Once your labour pool exceeds the demand, and there is no longer anywhere for the surplus workers to go, you're boned.
If you don't get ahead of it now, you're gonna get run over by it later.
IMO we are not victims of automation, we are being liberated by it, to do what we want with our lives and live them to full potential.
I wonder if you entirely misunderstand what I am trying to say. I'll break it down one section at a time:
we are not victims of automation
We are not victims of automation, but we will become victims of stagnant capitalism. Automating existing jobs, without providing new sources of employment/income, would cause an economic implosion.
we are being liberated by it
No. Whether we gain or lose freedom will be decided by politics, not technology. Tec is equally adept at both.
Manhours are being liberated. What happens with the excess is to be determined.
to do what we want with our lives and live them to full potential.
How you gonna do that without a job? Unless you are one of the %5-%15 that is still required, you'll be too busy trying to eek out a living.
It's all about the wealth distribution. Jobs (as we know them) are going to disappear. If there is nothing to replace them, chaos will follow.
How about the new sectors of developers, programmers, maintenance, service, marketing, accountancy etc etc for these automation companies.
My point is, we're moving up as humanity, jobs will always follow. Just look at last 75 years where machination and automation have already taken large chunks of traditional jobs.
With less people in factories and working the land, Hell... even the Female population joining in; we managed to increase desk jobs all across the board (better/healthier) , inflated our entertainment industry by an enormous ammount (Radio -> TV -> MTV -> youtube), created an incredible amount of technical progress (engineering jobs), created the internet (programmers), created an enormous market in luxury goods, Built many more buildings and structures then ever before, Tourism has skyrocketed etc etc.... progress.
In the Netherlands we knew worker shortage for about 65 of these 75 years (high unemployment was mainly during the peaks of a number of crisis), for the rest it increased our living standard almost unimaginably, made jobs healthier/better, increased our pay and vacation days and lowered our weekly working hours.
IMO it just frees us up for "better"/other things.