Like every other state that has legalized it, we will see a major increase in use for the first year or so. But once the novelty wears off, it will drop down to normal levels.
It's just nice that we don't have to worry about getting jail time and fines over weed.
I have absolutely no way to prove this. So, please just consider it an anecdote and I'm working with a trivial sample size.
I'm not sure that the increase in use for the first year is actually even real. In my observations, the same people still smoked - they just felt more comfortable talking about it and admitting they smoked.
Again, that's just what I have observed and it's a very small sample.
You could be correct on that.
I have no way to prove my theory either, but I suspect legalization opens up a few people to at least try it for the first time.
Edit: I think some weed tourist's can account for a small increase for the first year too.
Nice! We have recreational weed here, but I'm not sure anyone cares. It was decriminalized (below certain amounts) and it was nearly impossible to get in major trouble for it. It stayed that way for years - and that's how it was when I got here. Everyone smoked back then. They still smoke. So, I'm not actually sure that it changed anything - except you no longer get a fine if you're caught with weed. (They used to pop me at least once a year, 'cause I smoke pot and do stupid stuff like leave it sitting on the passenger seat. I called it my pot tax.)