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Wars of attrition are won with factories, not bullets. The US manufacturing capabilities can no longer compete with all nations, and they are likely to continue that downward trend. Combine that with war machines that are very complex, and you have a very limited production speed.

The top tier equipment is often overpriced for what they deliver, and can't be rapidly replaced. The F35 is a good example. Super expensive per unit because it is a multi-purpose craft. Meaning it's not quite as good as a bomber, and not quite as good as a fighter, but way more expensive than eaither. I'm not even sure if the US has the capability to make one by itself. There's just no way they can 'pump them out' if it faced real adversity.
They are powerful aircraft, but they have a low power to cost ratio, and are exceptionally difficult to produce.

It doesn't matter if the F35 is able to take out 5 enemy craft for each one lost, if the enemy craft is 1/10th the cost and time to manufacture.
In a practical sense, China probably has the most dangerous air force. Each individual plane may be a shitty knock-off, but they can produce new ones faster than the US can mobilize existing forces.
Same, to a lesser extent, is true with Russia. Russia is often closer in ability though. The SU50 could (though probably not) even be a superior plane. It is more capable in maneuverability and radar detection, so who knows.

I think the US military has also realized this. I think that it the real impetus behind the light attack project. It is not just about saving cash, it's also a means of sustainable warfare. I think it will continue with light designs for other roles, as well as land and sea versions of the program.

Wars of attrition are won with factories, not bullets. The US manufacturing capabilities can no longer compete with all nations, and they are likely to continue that downward trend. Combine that with war machines that are very complex, and you have a very limited production speed. The top tier equipment is often overpriced for what they deliver, and can't be rapidly replaced. The F35 is a good example. Super expensive per unit because it is a multi-purpose craft. Meaning it's not quite as good as a bomber, and not quite as good as a fighter, but way more expensive than eaither. I'm not even sure if the US has the capability to make one by itself. There's just no way they can 'pump them out' if it faced real adversity. They are powerful aircraft, but they have a low power to cost ratio, and are exceptionally difficult to produce. It doesn't matter if the F35 is able to take out 5 enemy craft for each one lost, if the enemy craft is 1/10th the cost and time to manufacture. In a practical sense, China probably has the most dangerous air force. Each individual plane may be a shitty knock-off, but they can produce new ones faster than the US can mobilize existing forces. Same, to a lesser extent, is true with Russia. Russia is often closer in ability though. The SU50 could (though probably not) even be a superior plane. It is more capable in maneuverability and radar detection, so who knows. I think the US military has also realized this. I think that it the real impetus behind the light attack project. It is not just about saving cash, it's also a means of sustainable warfare. I think it will continue with light designs for other roles, as well as land and sea versions of the program.

22 comments

I'm not sure this scenario would ever occur.

I also doubt it would. Almost everyone has too much to lose to let things escalate to those levels.
But things can change.

There is a strong case to be made that it might not even be a war of attrition.

That's a real possibility. With a mid-tier military (Turkey, India, Canada) I believe the US could destroy their ability to wage war, before taking enough losses to be in any danger or need of industry.
But that is less certain with Russia/China, and if trends continued without change, it could get worse.

The trends will change, though. Future combat-tec is probably beyond imagining at this point.
But my money is still on 'Orbital Kinetic Cannons'. My tinfoil hat tells me that's what the X37 is.

[–] PMYA 2 points (+2|-0)

Kinetic space weapons are a possibility. They actually came up in MP, though the post was not allowed due to the player controlling Saudi Arabia, which clearly does not have the ability to put weapons like that in space.

Laws/treaties regarding weapon usage in space only applies to the use of nuclear weapons, not conventional ones.