If Erdogan seizes the US nukes stationed in Turkey, do you think that "the world will end" or that "Turkey will become the new North Korea", or something else?

That's...very hard to say. I don't think it will be apocalyptic. I think war becomes a legitimate possibility. Turkey entering a period of intense isolation and cut-off from most international ties also is a real possibility - with a possible Russian intervention at that point, since no one will come to their aid? I don't know how battle-ready these nations' forces are, or how hard either side will push. If it goes the NK route, there'll be a series of events. - USA tells Turkey "Cool joke bro, give them back" - Turkey says "Come get them then" - USA says "We'll kick you out of our Never-ending Awesome Treaty Organization" - Turkey says "Your organization is dumb anyway, gonna make my own organization with blackjack and hookers" - Turkey gets thrown out of the clubhouse and keeps yelling at Greece forever, but Greece is in that clubhouse with his friends, so Turkey still doesn't do anything - USA and others embargo Turkey until they give USA their stuff back - Russia and USA agree on something for once, only Russia wants to go the full nine yards with it - Turkey becomes diplomatically isolated except to other Arabic states that also hate the United States (see: all of them) - Turkey trying to sell nukes becomes a possibility, although I expect they would get smacked down hard if they tried it. But you know shit goes down on the DL sometimes. Trump deciding to respond with force to that kind of act, and I mean _real_ force, also seems like a decently probable series of events.