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Something the American establishment constantly screeches about is how much of a threat Russia is to the world. In a military sense, this is true. This is just one important statistic out of many. When you look into other things such as their economy, healthcare and social welfare you will see that Russia isn't this mighty threat that it's former self once was.

It's simply unrealistic to believe that Russia has the power to take over the world based off their current situation. They have nukes, sure -- but they're not going to be used. Apart from a few other weapons, Russia is fucked in terms of their inability to expand.

China, on the other hand, has technology developed from the 1990's onward. They never had the opportunity to develop much of a navy or airforce due to the Sino-Soviet split. This left them with just a large malnourished army until Deng Xiaoping opened the country up.

If you're vaguely similar with the Meiji Restoration that Japan went through, the steps went like this:

  • Embrace westernised ideas (Communism in '49 then capitalism in '78 for China)

  • Develop the economy (500 million people in the Chinese middle class now)

  • Expand their sphere of influence and power (Chinese investment in Africa & Silk Road)

  • Maintain colonies (Japan temporarily achieved this)

There are a similar amount of similarities between the Meiji Restoration and the path China is heading down. It's true that historically China never expanded in the way that the Europeans did, this is beginning to change. Japan was in a similar position 100 years ago where they didn't have much opportunity to expand (they're an island). Then out of nowhere, they invaded Korea, China, Manchuria and S. E. Asia.

China aren't expanding in the traditional military sense. The way they're expanding their sphere of influence is intelligently and in a discrete manner. They're using the power of agreements to expand their sphere of influence.

For African & South Pacific countries they use a tool called "debt-trap diplomacy" where they deliver a large infrastructure investment, but the host country is unable to repay the loans so China gains strategic assets in the form of rail and road transport, docks especially built for their military and even things like stadiums.

China aren't just messing with Africa and South Pacific nations. They're trying to toy with first-world, westernised, industrial countries. A great example of this is New Zealand. In the 2008 China-New Zealand FTA, there is a provision which allowed 1,800 Chinese people in for 3 years and another which brings in another 1,000 Chinese people for a year. To add more fuel to the fire, they've been given permission to register their "China Construction Bank". New Zealand could be at risk of being the next victim of debt-trap diplomacy.

Historically, it was in China's best interests to send their own people overseas. Mao even proposed this to Kissinger in the 70's. Mao Zedong wanted to send 10,000,000 Chinese women to the United States. His reasoning was that women created disasters and that it would 'impair your interests'. Considering Xi Jinping has been compared to Mao, is this proposition so novel anymore? This comes after statistics saying that more and more Chinese people are migrating to western countries like New Zealand.

While I would consider today's China to be better than the China of the 60's, there is an insurgence of social control there. Namely their 'social credit' system. This is one of the biggest obstacles to preventing democracy and more capitalism spreading in China. This could be what stops China from ending up like South Korea, Taiwan or Chile in terms of political freedoms. This level of social control is a communist wet dream.

By no means do we need a cold war with China. What we need is to be vigilant and more suspicious of the Chinese. The opportunities they present aren't done with a good heart. They're done with the sole objective to expand their sphere of influence, something Russia is unable to do.

PT. 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGl3HxEMJhI

PT. 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xwk0vZwpPpw

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand%E2%80%93China_Free_Trade_Agreement

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/22/new-zealand-immigration-hits-record-high

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-31/chinas-social-credit-system-punishes-untrustworthy-citizens/9596204

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/djibouti-is-becoming-gateway-to-africa-for-china-a-1191441.html

https://intpolicydigest.org/2018/05/08/behind-the-goodwill-aid-china-s-neo-colonialism-in-africa/

Something the American establishment constantly screeches about is how much of a threat Russia is to the world. In a military sense, this is true. This is just one important statistic out of many. When you look into other things such as their economy, healthcare and social welfare you will see that Russia isn't this mighty threat that it's former self once was. It's simply unrealistic to believe that Russia has the power to take over the world based off their current situation. They have nukes, sure -- but they're not going to be used. Apart from a few other weapons, Russia is fucked in terms of their inability to expand. China, on the other hand, has technology developed from the 1990's onward. They never had the opportunity to develop much of a navy or airforce due to the Sino-Soviet split. This left them with just a large malnourished army until Deng Xiaoping opened the country up. If you're vaguely similar with the Meiji Restoration that Japan went through, the steps went like this: - Embrace westernised ideas (Communism in '49 then capitalism in '78 for China) - Develop the economy (500 million people in the Chinese middle class now) - Expand their sphere of influence and power (Chinese investment in Africa & Silk Road) - Maintain colonies (Japan temporarily achieved this) There are a similar amount of similarities between the Meiji Restoration and the path China is heading down. It's true that historically China never expanded in the way that the Europeans did, this is beginning to change. Japan was in a similar position 100 years ago where they didn't have much opportunity to expand (they're an island). Then out of nowhere, they invaded Korea, China, Manchuria and S. E. Asia. China aren't expanding in the traditional military sense. The way they're expanding their sphere of influence is intelligently and in a discrete manner. They're using the power of agreements to expand their sphere of influence. For African & South Pacific countries they use a tool called "debt-trap diplomacy" where they deliver a large infrastructure investment, but the host country is unable to repay the loans so China gains strategic assets in the form of rail and road transport, docks especially built for their military and even things like stadiums. China aren't just messing with Africa and South Pacific nations. They're trying to toy with first-world, westernised, industrial countries. A great example of this is New Zealand. In the 2008 China-New Zealand FTA, there is a provision which allowed 1,800 Chinese people in for 3 years and another which brings in another 1,000 Chinese people for a year. To add more fuel to the fire, they've been given permission to register their "China Construction Bank". New Zealand could be at risk of being the next victim of debt-trap diplomacy. Historically, it was in China's best interests to send their own people overseas. Mao even proposed this to Kissinger in the 70's. Mao Zedong wanted to send 10,000,000 Chinese women to the United States. His reasoning was that women created disasters and that it would 'impair your interests'. Considering Xi Jinping has been compared to Mao, is this proposition so novel anymore? This comes after statistics saying that more and more Chinese people are migrating to western countries like New Zealand. While I would consider today's China to be better than the China of the 60's, there is an insurgence of social control there. Namely their 'social credit' system. This is one of the biggest obstacles to preventing democracy and more capitalism spreading in China. This could be what stops China from ending up like South Korea, Taiwan or Chile in terms of political freedoms. This level of social control is a communist wet dream. By no means do we need a cold war with China. What we need is to be vigilant and more suspicious of the Chinese. The opportunities they present aren't done with a good heart. They're done with the sole objective to expand their sphere of influence, something Russia is unable to do. PT. 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGl3HxEMJhI PT. 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xwk0vZwpPpw https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand%E2%80%93China_Free_Trade_Agreement https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/22/new-zealand-immigration-hits-record-high http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-31/chinas-social-credit-system-punishes-untrustworthy-citizens/9596204 http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/djibouti-is-becoming-gateway-to-africa-for-china-a-1191441.html https://intpolicydigest.org/2018/05/08/behind-the-goodwill-aid-china-s-neo-colonialism-in-africa/

11 comments

[–] chmod 4 points (+4|-0)

I'm a contractor with the DoD. No one is really worried about Russia right now, we're all terrified of China. They are pouring billions into their military and to be honest, right now could give us a pretty good ass-whipping if it came down to it. They are not quite caught up with us on technology (fighters, ships, tanks) but they are damned close and the shear numbers they are producing are what is scaring the DoD. The only thing that is saving us right now is possibly trade. I like Trump but the trade war with China upsets the scales.

[–] MirrorMan 1 points (+1|-0)

Honestly we're fucked. Have your kids take Chinese as a foreign language in school.

[–] Dii_Casses 2 points (+2|-0)

As someone that was learning Japanese in kindergarten thanks to the Yellow Scare, I think that is a somewhat overblown precaution.

[–] MirrorMan 0 points (+0|-0)

The difference is an issue of scale. Japan never had a nation of 1 billion citizens.

[–] CDanger 0 points (+0|-0)

Or learn English--not just to speak with Canadians, Americans, Brits, or Aussies--but because it is the international language that the world speaks for trade, culture, the internet, travel, etc. English has already won that battle, and Chinese can't catch up.

[–] MirrorMan 0 points (+0|-0)

I would think with the proliferation of information due to the internet that English has more staying power than its analogue French. It wouldn't hurt to learn Chinese though as it would be a useful asset in the current and certainly figure business world.

[–] CDanger 0 points (+0|-0)

Sure, it would be more useful to speak Mandarin than not speaking Mandarin, but that is true of any language, and there are just as many advantages and opportunities for those speaking Spanish, Portuguese, Russian, Japanese, Korean, German, Arabic, Turkish, French, etc. The question is if it is worth the time and effort to learn Mandarin--a notoriously difficult language--instead of learning other things and improving other skills. In almost all cases it is not, and learning English well (even for native speakers) carries a far greater return. Even in a future world where China has a much larger economy, very few jobs would actually require or benefit from speaking Mandarin.The most useful skills to teach in terms of return on investment are probably financial literacy, self reliance, math, and technology.

Translation technology is already surprisingly effective and good enough for travel purposes to translate signs and casual conversations in real time. In 10-15 years, there may not be any need at all for human translators, and even the advantages in the business world would disappear.

[–] CDanger 1 points (+1|-0)

Well said. Western politicians and business leaders have been all to happy to sell out democratic nations so that they can capture short term profits. There are far more friendly countries that could source cheap goods without the risk of concentrating power in china.

[–] largo -1 points (+0|-1)

but no one can go without china, their the one who control world trade now... will see how trump reaction effect to that