China has about 20 ICBM with 3-5MT warheads that can hit the US. If the US uses 20-60 small 300kt warheads from submarines to preemptively strike the sites, up to 30M Chinese could die, nearly all from radioactive fallout (the ICBMs are in very remote areas). Chinese strategy instead is countervalue threat against US cities. The international law legality of targeting cities is questionable, but obviously that doesn't matter when nukes are flying. 20 Chinese warheads would cause massive damage on US cities, producing also up to about 30M deaths. US planers would need to be extremely confident to take out all Chinese silos or else 3M deaths in NYC, LA, Chicago, etc could be expected if even one nuke gets through. Even if the US pulls that off, we're looking at millions of dead Chinese civilians. China has been looking to pivot to a larger number of smaller warheads to threaten medium and small cities, but that wouldn't change the US deaths much since a few hits on the big US cities vs many hits on small US cities produces about the same casualties.
Note that this report is already 15 years old and outdated regarding China's nuclear potential and commitment to no first use.
tl;dr
China has about 20 ICBM with 3-5MT warheads that can hit the US. If the US uses 20-60 small 300kt warheads from submarines to preemptively strike the sites, up to 30M Chinese could die, nearly all from radioactive fallout (the ICBMs are in very remote areas). Chinese strategy instead is countervalue threat against US cities. The international law legality of targeting cities is questionable, but obviously that doesn't matter when nukes are flying. 20 Chinese warheads would cause massive damage on US cities, producing also up to about 30M deaths. US planers would need to be extremely confident to take out all Chinese silos or else 3M deaths in NYC, LA, Chicago, etc could be expected if even one nuke gets through. Even if the US pulls that off, we're looking at millions of dead Chinese civilians. China has been looking to pivot to a larger number of smaller warheads to threaten medium and small cities, but that wouldn't change the US deaths much since a few hits on the big US cities vs many hits on small US cities produces about the same casualties.
Note that this report is already 15 years old and outdated regarding China's nuclear potential and commitment to no first use.
Sad but true. Obviously CCP influence has infiltrated US, Canada, Australia, NZ, and western Europe. I wonder about Japan though. Ethno nationalism might have prevented that.
Sad but true. Obviously CCP influence has infiltrated US, Canada, Australia, NZ, and western Europe. I wonder about Japan though. Ethno nationalism might have prevented that.
tl;dr
China has about 20 ICBM with 3-5MT warheads that can hit the US. If the US uses 20-60 small 300kt warheads from submarines to preemptively strike the sites, up to 30M Chinese could die, nearly all from radioactive fallout (the ICBMs are in very remote areas). Chinese strategy instead is countervalue threat against US cities. The international law legality of targeting cities is questionable, but obviously that doesn't matter when nukes are flying. 20 Chinese warheads would cause massive damage on US cities, producing also up to about 30M deaths. US planers would need to be extremely confident to take out all Chinese silos or else 3M deaths in NYC, LA, Chicago, etc could be expected if even one nuke gets through. Even if the US pulls that off, we're looking at millions of dead Chinese civilians. China has been looking to pivot to a larger number of smaller warheads to threaten medium and small cities, but that wouldn't change the US deaths much since a few hits on the big US cities vs many hits on small US cities produces about the same casualties.
Note that this report is already 15 years old and outdated regarding China's nuclear potential and commitment to no first use.